(upbeat synth music) - The deadly shooting at Michigan State University has several state lawmakers seeking passage of common-sense gun reforms.

In her State of the State address, Governor Gretchen Whitmer outlined legislation for just that.

The governor also introduced her Lowering MI Costs plan, offering tax relief.

We'll discuss that and the election of a new Michigan GOP chair on "West Michigan Week."

Thank you for joining us on "West Michigan Week."

Flags across the state are at half staff as we mourn the deaths of three MSU students killed last week during a campus shooting.

Five students were injured.

Here to discuss common-sense gun reforms proposed by numerous lawmakers are "Detroit Free Press" Politics and Government Editor Emily Lawler and Colin Jackson, state capitol bureau reporter with the Michigan Public Radio Network.

You can hear his reporting on WGVU FM 88.5 and 95.3.

How are ya?

- Hey, thanks for having us.

It's been a rough week.

- It has been a rough week.

- Happy to be here.

- Yeah, you both have been covering this.

I know, Colin, you've been in Lansing for much of this.

What has the mood been like at the capitol?

- Well, it's been a somber mood, for one.

We've had a few rallies now at the capitol steps.

Last week, a group of MSU students organized their own rally.

A lot of lawmakers were in attendance there.

And that was really a chance for MSU students to just share their stories and share their frustration.

A lot of them talked about growing up through lockdown drills, living across the street from different places or down the street from where, for example, Newtown, Connecticut's shooting happened, or school shootings happened in California, losing classmates back then as well.

So there was a lot of frustration that the students expressed to lawmakers.

And that was the same day that the House of Representatives passed the memorial resolution.

And we saw a lot of lawmakers speak to that as well.

So it's been a somber mood and a lot of feelings that, at least from the Democratic side of the aisle, that lawmakers had failed the students at MSU.

- Yeah, I think that's right.

And you know, I was on campus the night of, as this was happening, as the gunman was still loose.

And just talking to students, even then, a lot of them came back to sort of the idea of the fact that the legislature should be doing something or should've already done something.

I think there's sort of a palpable frustration, after the Oxford shooting, that the legislature didn't react then.

You know, they formed a work group and sort of focused on some school safety initiatives, but nothing that directly addressed guns.

And also, even the work group's recommendations didn't come out till December and still haven't been passed in the legislature.

So I think that, you know, obviously, legislation can move at a lot of different paces depending on what's rolling and what other things are in place and what kind of obstacles and political hurdles they have.

But I do think that, you know, for students, they've been pretty clear that this isn't moving quickly enough.

- And this is one of those moments where the governor could take advantage of what has transpired, unfortunately, in Lansing.

And that is, if we go back, not even quite a month, right, we're talking about, I believe it was January 25th during the State of the State address, the governor discussing the launch of Operation Safe Neighborhood, so removing illegal guns from the streets.

But there was much more to this.

She talked about, there is this next generation and how firearms are becoming more of the culture.

And she basically said, "Enough of the thoughts and prayers."

And here she is during her State of the State address.

- It's time for common-sense action to reduce gun violence in our communities.

Let's enact universal background checks for people who want to buy firearms.

Let's enact safe storage laws so we can make sure firearms are stored safely at home.

And let's enact extreme risk protection orders so we can keep guns out of the hands of those who might represent a danger to themselves or others.

If Florida and Indiana can get this done, we sure as heck can, right?

(audience cheering and clapping) - So you were there for this address.

How does this now build the case for moving legislation?

- Yeah, certainly, I think that this is some evidence that this issue has been on Governor Whitmer's mind, certainly, prior to the shooting.

We know that Governor Whitmer has really strong ties to Michigan State University.

And this has gotta be something that hits her personally as well as professionally.

But you know, I do think that it sort of had the effect of moving this up the priority list or at least got everyone talking about it.

You know, lawmakers are responding to what they hear about from their constituents.

And frankly, I think they're getting a lot of calls from their constituents after the shooting, asking what they're gonna do about it.

And I think that naturally sort of moves up the legislative agenda, something that Democrats had already decided they were gonna prioritize.

- I think that from the State of the State, or at least the night of the State of the State, there was this understanding that, yes, this is something that Democrats were going to prioritize.

Gun legislation was not one of the original bills that were introduced this legislative session.

I think there was this perception that, at least, Democrats would need more time to work among some of their more vulnerable members to maybe get them on board, determine what policies from previous sessions would they reintroduce, what policies would they switch around.

Then after this, it seemed like the move was definitely, they're for sure going to introduce legislation.

At least that was the impression that we received.

And Thursday, we saw gun legislation being introduced in the Senate.

The House could introduce gun legislation as soon as Wednesday.

So this is something that definitely, as Emily said, moved up on the priority list for sure.

And this is something that Democrats believe they have the wind to their backs on and can get done.

- And the governor pointing out that, if Florida and Indiana can do it, we can do it.

We're looking at introducing universal background checks, red flag laws, and mandatory storage laws.

Is this a starting point?

Because the opposition will always say, "Well, this is a slippery slope."

- [Emily] Yes.

- [Patrick] But does this poll well with people, red flag laws and universal background checks?

- Yeah, we do know that this has broad public support.

But in the legislature, it's a little bit stickier, to be honest.

You know, Democrats have really slim majorities.

They have two seats in both chambers, but essentially, they can't lose a single vote in the House.

In the Senate, they could theoretically lose a single vote and have the lieutenant governor step in as a tiebreaker.

But you know, these are really, really close margins to work with.

We'll see if Republicans are united in opposition, but I actually don't think they will be.

My team undertook a survey of all 148 lawmakers, which is a lot of lawmakers to reach out to and knock on their office doors and all.

And you know, some people didn't wanna talk about it or declined to talk to us, but I will say that some Republicans seemed open to some of the concepts that you just mentioned and that they seemed like, you know, depending on how the details of a proposal came out, that that's something they'd look at supporting.

So I do think that maybe there's some room for some bipartisan appeal here, even though I think the legislature is probably gonna be a tighter margin than the general public.

- Colin, you knock on those doors.

What are you hearing?

- Well, I'm hearing pretty much the same thing Emily said.

Last year, I just remember when these bills were first brought up.

Senator Rosemary Bayer, who represents the Oxford School District, they went through their own school shooting last year, she introduced some of these bills.

And I know that the day, or at least the day of when the Democrats had their big press conference unveiling some of these policy ideas, the Republican lawmakers I talked to initially just shot it down right away.

And it seemed like they were going to have a lot of trouble getting through, getting hearings.

We were told that the Senate was open to holding a hearing on one of the gun packages.

That didn't actually end up happening after receiving a significant amount of pushback.

Now that we're dealing with this again less than a year and a half later, I'm not quite sure what happens now.

Now that the Democrats are in charge, will it be more... Is there more of a political appetite for Republicans to get on board for this, knowing that now they're not the ones that will take the immediate blame if this passes?

I'm not quite sure, but that's where things have been in the past, at least.

- So what are the challenges for those Republicans who might be on the fence, who might know the polling data all too well?

But what are the buts that they have to answer to?

- You know, one thing I heard is that this is just a supercharged issue.

So you know, I think a lot of people find it hard to engage in across-the-aisle conversations about guns in general.

I think there's a lot of fundamental disagreements on starting points and that that sort of puts people on two different planes that just make it hard to bridge.

So I do think that's part of it.

I also think Republicans have some concerns about the specifics of the legislation.

You know, specifically with the red flag law, people told us in our survey that they were concerned about maybe an ex-spouse or someone trying to use that in a weaponized fashion or vengefully.

So I think that they have some questions about the specifics, too, before they would necessarily be ready to engage on those issues.

- And to build on what Emily just said, I've been hearing those same concerns.

Even with safe storage, something that lawmakers have told me is concerns that it would be a largely reactionary policy.

And their concern is, at that point, if the punishments under these safe storage laws deal with what happens after an incident occurs, if a child gets a gun and shoots somebody with it or something negative happens, it doesn't really deal with the problem of preventing something from happening.

Obviously, Democrats are saying, "If you have these different penalties, it would encourage safe storage."

There's also some tax breaks there also for some of these safe storage mechanisms and technologies as well.

But those are some of the other concerns that Republicans do have with this legislation that they brought forward.

- And so I received this just yesterday.

This is from Great Lakes Gun Rights, and you touched on some of the gray area here.

So here's a quote from leadership there.

"Red flag gun confiscation orders allow an old roommate, ex-spouse, ex-girlfriend, or ex-boyfriend to file for an order against someone with very little evidence and strips someone of their rights without due process.

The so-called universal background checks bills are de facto universal gun registration and will make it illegal to loan a close relative or friend a shotgun for hunting.

Finally, the storage laws disarm law-abiding Michiganders in their own homes and are probably already unconstitutional under the Heller decision."

So yeah, this is kind of, I don't know if you wanna call it the minutiae, but I think, if you are on the other side, you're saying, "See?

This is the stuff that that matters to to us."

- Absolutely, and then if you're a Democrat, sometimes, you know, we've heard from people who look at this as a starting point and really wanna expand on their gun legislation from here.

So I do think that there is sort of a mismatch between priorities on each side of this issue right now.

- So what are the expectations?

What do you see happening here?

We've been through this, right?

Oxford, you can count the number of other states where we've had shootings.

- I'll say- - You're at the Capitol.

What do you think happens here?

- I'll say, I don't know if Democrats ultimately have the votes.

One strong sign is that the legislation Colin mentioned that was introduced Thursday did have, I think, all Senate Democrats listed as co-sponsors.

- They vary from bill to bill, but I think between all of them, at some point, each person's name appeared on at least one of them.

- So that's, you know, a sign that the margin might be good in the Senate for the people who wanna pass this.

But I think one advantage that Democrats have being in leadership this cycle is that they can put this stuff on the board and give it hearings.

And those are things that we haven't seen happen under Republican majorities.

And frankly, I think a lot of Democrats wanna know where their Republican colleagues stand on some of these issues.

And just putting it up and forcing a vote on something like that is a step further than we've ever gotten in Michigan after Oxford or in recent years.

- And only, I think, a few of the bills are actually tight-wired to one another within this package.

So there is a potential out here where we do have some of these bills passed while other ones stay behind in committee and get worked on a little bit more while the coalition support gets built.

I'm not quite sure exactly how long that will take.

Obviously, Democrats want to move quicker with this.

I was told, at one point, in the House that leadership is making a point of not putting up votes on the board that they don't believe will pass.

So whenever it will come up, it'll probably be at a point when they do feel confident that they have these votes.

And I think it'll be hard.

There's gonna be a lot of pressure on these members to get behind whatever legislation does get introduced because it's going to be hard for them to go back to their district and say, "Well, we didn't feel comfortable with this gun legislation," especially if they're coming from a Democratic district and that Democrats in leadership have been making a significant part of their priorities.

- Well, we know that both parties can get behind tax relief.

And also during that State of the State address, the Lowering MI Costs plan was brought out and announced by the governor, three parts, retirement tax rollbacks saving half a million households $1,000 a year, Working Families Tax Credit expansion delivering at least $3,000 refunds to 700,000 families, Pre-K for All saving families an average of $10,000 a year and ensuring every four-year-old in Michigan receives early childhood development.

Clean, easy, or not so much?

- No, this is a lot of sausage.

(Patrick and Emily laughing) So a lot of the things that you mentioned, so for instance, like the $3,000 Earned Income Tax Credit, which targets low-income working families, you know, that includes federal money that they're already getting, so the state portion of that is significantly smaller.

The retirement tax rollback hinges on these changes that were made in 2012 that are, yes, some exemptions being reinstated, I think, would be the most accurate way to put that, but with some tweaks to that as well.

And then there's this whole $180 check plan that's sort of the middle class's benefit out of this whole package, and it's kind of in exchange for what would've been a income tax rate cut that would've gone into effect if they hadn't done this and sort of moved the money around.

And then that $10,000 potential savings for pre-K is only gonna be fully implemented four years from now, so right now, it's just families under a certain threshold that are able to access that assistance.

So you know, it's a lot of numbers that sound big but I think, when you break them down for the average family, are not quite as generous as they might seem on the surface.

- Yeah, I think, just to add on to that, as Emily mentioned, the $180 tax rebate checks, those are the big sticking point.

That's also a big sticking point for why Republicans voted against this bill, because they're saying this'll basically cancel out revenue projections that would have led to, or at least were expected to have led to a income tax cut that Republicans say would go forward.

Democrats, the administration say it's more questionable whether or not it would just be for this year versus going forward, but essentially, there is a lot of questions about whether or not that will even go forward, 'cause even as is right now, the Senate voted to pass the bill.

But there's a procedural vote called immediate effect that requires 2/3 majority in the Senate to get this to take effect in time, for that those $180 checks to go out in time.

And as it stands, Republicans aren't for it.

It failed on its first immediate effect vote.

Democrats motioned to reconsider the vote at a later date.

And then they introduced a resolution that would essentially change the immediate effect rules to make it easier to get past the Senate as it is in the House.

But even then, with those rule changes, there's a lot of questions as to whether or not Democrats really intend to keep that going forward or if it's more of an effort to get Republican support for this onboard.

So that's hanging out there, and it's still really, whatever happens with this is still kind of up in the air.

- So what is the big revenue dollar amount that's out there?

We receive all this pandemic relief money.

And so there is this idea, right?

Governor Whitmer talks about bipartisan support on a lot of her legislation.

So we have some big dollars there.

Where does this end up?

Where do you see this moving?

Do Republicans get some of what they want in the end?

- I don't know.

I think it's hard to say, because you know, essentially, there's a $9 billion surplus coming into this budget cycle.

Whitmer's budget, which takes some of these cuts into account, spends all but 250 million of that.

So it would essentially drain that giant federal surplus that's been hanging out there.

So obviously, there are gonna be competing ideas on how to spend that money, but this is sort of moving, you know, the tax package was sort of moving separately, although the daycare piece is rolled in with the regular budget process, but you know, I don't think that Whitmer's budget proposal will be the final product of the budget process by any means, so we could still be left with some of that surplus, and you know, her budget also does invest in the Rainy Day Fund, which is sort of like a built-in safety valve, I guess, (laughing) for state government.

- [Patrick] I was gonna go there next, so okay.

(Emily laughing) - But yeah, I do think that, you know, if her budget ideas and these tax cuts go through like we think they will, that we'd certainly be spending down most of that extra money that's been hanging around.

- I think Republicans have gotten at least some of what they want within this big tax bill that Democrats are trying to get to the governor's desk.

For example, earlier versions of their retirement tax rollback, at least how Democrats have been framing it as a retirement tax rollback, would've benefited public pensioners more than private pensioners.

The latest version, the one that actually got passed, basically puts them on an even footing.

When it comes to the Earned Income Tax Credit now being framed as the Working Family's Tax Credit, that's something that, on its own, as a separate bill, passed out of...

Both chambers passed a similar version of that bill with wide bipartisan support.

One main thing that Republicans had been pushing for, at least in the House, was retroactivity so that it would apply to the 2022 tax year.

That's something that's in this bill.

And Republicans in leadership at least have been alluding to that, whereas if these retirement tax bills, Republicans still have some criticisms about it, but if that had gone up on its own, if the tax credit had gone up on its own, those things could get passed with wide bipartisan support.

But a big sticking point has been going back to those $180 checks that's in the income tax cut.

That's where the real back and forth is, and I don't see Democrats really budging on that or Republicans for that matter.

- Well, this state, you talked about the Rainy Day Fund, there have been some lean times.

And so when you see the surplus- - Certainly, I think you make the most friends by spending.

I think that's a case that's been made over and over again in Lansing.

But Whitmer's budget does put not only more money in our existing budget stabilization fund, which is the fancy name for the Rainy Day Fund, but also establishes one of those within sort of the school aid realm.

So you know, certainly, she is proposing putting some money aside, and we did dip into that money, you know?

At one point, Rick Snyder made it a point to build that fund up because, I forget what the statistic was, but basically, it was not enough to keep our state government running in an emergency.

And you know, during COVID, we hit an emergency.

So I think that that's still fresh on people's minds.

- Well, fresh on your minds, this past weekend, in Lansing, there was a convention that was held.

And the Michigan GOP has elected a new chair.

Take me through some of the dynamics of this weekend and the election of Kristina Karamo.

- Yeah, so I think, before we even get into the election of Kristina Karamo, I think some of the things that stood out to me, and these weren't really surprises for those that have really been paying attention.

It's just kind of the technocratic nature and how willing some of the delegates were to, like, dive into the minutiae of things.

For example, Saturday, so it was a two-night convention.

Friday night was the congressional caucus meetings.

That was the candidate's chance to running for chair, to go around, making their case.

Former Attorney General Nominee and former Gubernatorial Primary Candidate Garrett Soldano, they were running together on a joint ticket.

They had Mike Lindell, also known as the MyPillow guy.

(chuckles) He was out campaigning with them along with members of the Trump campaign.

They were making their case, Kristina Karamo, former Secretary of State nominee, she was making their case.

And things seemed to be going pretty standard until it came time for some of the districts to adopt their own rules report and choose their delegates to different... And there was just a lot of kind of infighting there in terms of how to go about those things.

And then we saw more of that Saturday, where one of the first things was to adopt the convention rules so they understand, "Okay, this had already been pre-written before we got to the convention.

It's just a matter of the convention to accept it."

These are things like, "How do we vote?

What procedures do we use?"

et cetera.

And there were, right off the bat, a lot of kind of amendments to the rules suggested.

Then there was an amendment to the amendment to the rules suggested about, "How do we vote?"

And then discussion on that and voting took a few hours.

And then, so the convention called to order around nine o'clock.

We didn't really start to hear from the candidates for chair until a little after two, if that gives you an idea of how long that went.

And some of the candidates for chair had been making this point of parliamentary procedure, making sure delegates were more involved.

That was a big sticking point in previous conventions, that they felt the party itself wasn't really listening to those who make up the party.

So there is a lot more attention paid to them, to say the least.

And then voting did end up going three rounds.

And Kristina Karamo, who has made elections a very big part of her platform in previous campaigns as well as her campaign for party chair, she's been very critical of the party establishment.

She came out on top during all three of those rounds of voting, from when it was an 11-candidate field to when it was a three-candidate field for when it was just her versus Matt DePerno.

She won.

- So what was it about her pitch?

What was it that, she was the one who ends up becoming chair?

- I think something that really stood out to me, and maybe you can add on to this, was just, people seem to feel like she was a trustworthy candidate.

They saw her as a non-politician.

They saw her as someone that speaks the truth, someone who they can relate to, someone who's gonna stick up for what they believe in.

You know, these typical things that we hear about a candidate, she sold that message well.

Distrust in the establishment was no secret amongst a lot of the delegates.

And I think, from the rules discussion earlier about voting, I think we saw that kind of distrust of even your own people at some point.

So I thought that she kind of, from what what I understood, it seemed like she threaded that needle well in terms of showing people, like, she is who she is.

She's genuine, and she had a really dedicated base of supporters.

- Yeah, I think that's true.

You know, Kristina Karamo as a candidate for Secretary of State and I think for this position too, is just really convicted.

You don't get the sense that she's, you know, changing positions based on the political winds.

It really seems like she has an internal compass that she displays publicly in a way that a lot of politicians don't.

You know, I do think also that she's just really... She's fun to listen to.

She's engaging.

I think she connects with people well when she talks to them one-on-one.

I think she connects with people well when she's on a stage.

So you know, the other thing was, it was a huge field without really clear political dynamics.

You know, there were 11 candidates going into the convention.

I think two had dropped out, and there were only nine by the time they were making speeches, but it was a really wide field.

Scott Greenlee sort of emerged as this candidate with some establishment backing.

But other than that, there really weren't some of the names you'd expect in terms of, like, proven fundraisers, for instance, because what the party really needs is money.

And you know, the chair is the main figure going out and getting that money.

Ron Weiser was able to prop up the party with a lot of his personal fortune.

None of the candidates that I'm aware of really had, like, that level of personal fortune that they could contribute personally, which means they're going to have to get good at going out there and talking to donors.

And it looks like maybe Karamo will have a little bit of a different approach.

- We have one minute here, just to get into this a little bit more.

Do you consider her a centrist, a figure that the party will rally around, or is she...

I mean, she's an election denier, so yeah, I mean, raising money could be an issue.

- I think so, and you know, I think that a lot of the donor class isn't necessarily comfortable with, you know, getting so far to the right, getting into that election denialism.

She hasn't conceded her own race for Secretary of State.

14 points in a statewide race in a purple state is a huge, huge margin, like, virtually inconceivable that fraud could comprise that.

In fact, it hasn't happened in a decade, I think.

- Yeah, I mean, she's someone that, I don't think she's going to shift her political beliefs or her statements based on whims.

But one point she did make as part of her three-point pitch she gave me was growing the party.

She wants to expand more into urban areas around Southeast Michigan, for example, in and around Detroit, so we'll see.

I think that's where a lot of her plans come for growing the party, not so much the traditional established donor base.

- All right, Colin Jackson with the Michigan Public Radio Network, thank you so much.

Emily Lawler with the "Detroit Free Press," thank you both so much for your time.

Lot of great information.

We appreciate it.

- Hey, thanks for having us.

- [Colin] Happy to be here.

- And thank you for joining us.

We'll see you again soon.

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