AMNA NAWAZ: Let's shift our focus# now to the war's impact on the## global energy market.

Oil and gas# prices spike today as the regional## conflict escalated and shipping was# disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz.

About 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied# natural gas flows through the strait every day,## making it one of the most crucial# oil supply routes on the planet.

William Brangham joins us now with more.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Amna, at least five# tankers have been damaged in the vicinity## of the strait since Saturday, and traffic slowed# dramatically there over the weekend.

Separately,## Iranian drones continue to attack# energy infrastructure in different## Arab Gulf states.

Today, those# attacks damaged an oil refinery## in Saudi Arabia and halted the production# of liquid natural gas, or LNG, in Qatar.

So to help us understand these impacts# and implications, we are joined by Dan## Pickering.

He's the chief investment# officer at Pickering Energy Partners,## which is a financial services and advisory# firm that is focused on the energy industry.

Dan, thank you so much for being here.

Let's pick apart some of these different impacts,## first on the markets.

What# happened with oil prices today?

DAN PICKERING, Chief Investment Officer,# Pickering Energy Partners: Yes, William,## we had a strong rally at oil pric.. WTI, the U.S.

benchmark, was about $72# a barrel.

It was actually up less than## many people expected.

So the markets did# better, the broad stock markets did better,## and oil didn't rise quite as much# as expected, but still up strongly.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: And we mentioned the# importance of the Strait of Hormuz and## the attacks and the trickiness of what's going on## there right now.

What do we know is# the latest happening in the strait?

DAN PICKERING: Yes, the latest# is essentially tanker traffic has## slowed to almost nothing.

Some vessels,# primarily Iranian vessels, are continuing## to move through the strait.

But because it's# dangerous, because there have been attacks,## there's not a lot of oil moving through# there.

And as we know, it is a big choke## point for global supply; 20 percent of# global supply comes through the straits.

And it's essentially shut down right now.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: I mean, obviously, this is# the main route.

That's why everyone has been## using it for so many years.

Is there or are there# any alternate routes to get that oil to market?

DAN PICKERING: For oil, there are# some other pipeline export routes,## maybe five million barrels a day, so, remember,# 20 million through the straits.

Perhaps five## million of it can get to market other ways.

So 15# percent of supply is trapped behind the straits.

On the gas side of the equation, there# really is no other output for Qatar's## liquefied natural gas.

And so that is# kind of 100 percent blocked right now.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Do you have# a sense of what Iran could do## to both increase the pressure on the# limited traffic that's going through,## and what might the Americans or allies# do to alleviate that choke point?

DAN PICKERING: When we think# about what could happen from here,## if Iran wants to ratchet up the tensions, it# probably wouldn't be in the Straits of Hormuz,## where they have already had# a big effect slowing traffic.

It would be lashing out at the energy# infrastructure of the other Gulf states,## so attacking Saudi Arabia's capabilities,# attacking Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab## Emirates.

So I think that the actions that# the U.S.

and the allies would likely take## will be to try and safeguard the straits, whether# using doing that militarily with escorts and/or## aerial support, and potentially creating a# financial backstop that would allow tanker## traffic to move through without fear# that the damage would be uninsured.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Right.

I mean, you mentioned some of .. those already.

What does this say about# the state of the conflict that Iran is## right now reaching out, trying to attack# those other states and other refineries?

DAN PICKERING: I think it says this is# clearly different than what we saw in June,## obviously, a much bigger conflict and one# in which Iran is prepared to fight back,## and fight back aggressively.

I would say, though, that the first# 48, 72 hours are very important,## and no significant infrastructure damage# has happened across the Middle East.

And so## I think we have to feel good that there# hasn't been more damage or more impact.## And my expectation is, we will probably fix# the Straits of Hormuz within the next 10 days.

And so this is absolutely a flash point# in time, but one that is probably going## to ease in terms of risk as we move# through the next week to two weeks.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: I want to ask you about this# one.

There was one attack on an LNG facility,## liquid natural gas facility, in Qatar.

And European gas prices surged# quite dramatically after that.## How significant is the loss of that one# facility or an attack on that one facility?

DAN PICKERING: Yes, Qatar, they're# 20 percent of global LNG supply,## and it all flows through the straits.# And so when you take 20 percent offline,## which has happened now, not# damage to the facility, per se,## but just forced to shut in because they can't# export their gas, 20 percent is a big impact.

So, European prices escalated.

A lot of that LNG# goes to Asia.

And so those shortages will be felt## in the next call it month or so.

But European# prices react because the whole global market has## now tightened.

Not a lot of excess LNG capacity# around the world to offset those shut-ins.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: I mean, I know we are# in early days and all of these things are## predictions at this point.

Do you have# any sense as to whether or not and when## American consumers might feel the# ripple effects of this conflict?

DAN PICKERING: Yes, I think we're# very lucky here in the United States,## from the perspective that, because of the# shale revolution, because of the fact that## the U.S.

has become the world's largest# oil producer at 14 million barrels a day## and a very significant gas producer,# we're pretty self-sufficient here.

And so we should be relatively insulated from# what's happening.

Global prices will impact U.S.## prices, but oil in the 70s, gasoline prices should# stay relatively muted.

So unless things escalate## from here, we should see relatively little# impact in the U.S., unless things escalate.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: All right, that is Dan# Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners.

Thank you so much for being here.

DAN PICKERING: Glad to be here.