(bright upbeat music) - Michigan's primary is in the books with voters supporting Tudor Dixon as the GOP's choice for governor.

We'll preview the race with incumbent democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer.

Speaking of incumbents, West Michigan US Representative Peter Meijer, who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump, lost to Trump endorsed John Gibbs.

And Michigan voters could weigh in on abortion rights come November if the board of state canvassers gives its approval.

How could that impact candidate races?

We take a closer look at the races ahead in November on "West Michigan Week."

Michigan's August primary had its share of drama in particular, within the GOP field of gubernatorial candidates.

It began with a signature petition scandal keeping some out of the field.

Five would ultimately compete, none with political experience, including Tudor Dixon who won the election.

Ryan Kelly, Ralph Verdant, Kevin Rink, and Garrett Soldano were also in the mix.

Here to discuss the race and preview November, is Emily Lawler, state politics and government editor with the Detroit Free Press.

Emily, how are you?

- Hey, good.

Thanks for having me.

- Good.

How late were you up primary night?

Let's compare our, the times when our heads hit the pillow.

- I was in bed by two.

I was surprised by how decisive the governor's race was, how early, obviously we had some congressionals outstanding.

I'm gonna guess that the third CD kept you up pretty late.

- Yes.

That was the race to watch.

Stella, you will be here later in the program.

We'll be breaking down that race.

And it was fascinating, but there might be some telltale signs there that we can introduce here in the gubernatorial race.

And I guess we can start with the Trump endorsement, or the Trump effect.

How does that play into all this?

- Yeah, so obviously the last minute endorsement of Donald Trump coming in and supporting Tudor Dixon was huge.

I think that all along, analysts and pundits, and people like me were saying that that could be a pretty decisive factor in such a fractured primary.

So we have this field initially of 10 as you mentioned.

And then of five, five people is still a huge field, which I think gets a little lost in the, the fact that we could have had 10, but when there were five candidates struggling to differentiate, and each pick a lane sort of to run in, and the polling just had everybody everywhere.

At some points, Ryan Kelly was leading, at some points Tudor Dixon was leading.

Before he got out, James Craig was leading in some polls.

So it really just turned into a field that was so unsettled up until the final, final moments that Trump's, Trump's endorsement really made a big difference for Tudor Dixon.

- Yeah, it wasn't the primary, or the GOP primary when Rick Snyder was there, but he was the one candidate who stood out from the pack.

Like you mentioned, early on, the polling data just showed you it was a tight race.

So what is it about Tudor Dixon that resonates with GOP voters?

- I think Tudor Dixon in some sense was sort of a lot of things to a lot of people.

If you are sitting on the fence, and you really support former President Donald Trump, and would like the people that he's endorsed to hold office, obviously that's appealing.

But if you're sitting around the dinner table talking about economic issues, I think that she's really tapped into that, and talked about what she would do differently, and a little bit about her sort of overall views of the economic picture, going back of course, to the pandemic restrictions and stuff like that.

And she also really speaks to parents, working parents.

She is one.

And so I think that she has really been able to tap into some of those education concerns as well.

And she has some, some things to say about the nursing homes and the pandemic lockdown restrictions more generally.

And I think she's sort of presenting herself as someone who is a practical alternative to governor Whitmer.

And I think that's sort of the message we'll see going into the fall.

- So how does her message stack up with the governors?

And now the governor has four years and a track record.

She's been fixing the roads.

Everywhere I drive, I see these big construction projects out on the highway.

Sometimes that might rankle people more than it pleases them.

So how does her track record, also getting through the pandemic and the public health messaging, how do the two, how do the two messages compete with the general public?

- Yeah.

I think that's a lot of what we're gonna see, frankly.

- You're right that one big dynamic here is that Gretchen Whitmer has decades of political history that we can look at and sort of project where she'll be on a lot of these issues.

Tudor Dixon is a political newcomer.

Everyone in the entire GOP primary field was a political newcomer.

So we really have to rely a little bit on what she's saying.

We don't actually have a track record of what she's done when she's confronted issues like we do with Gretchen Whitmer.

But certainly I think everyone is gonna be concerned about the economy.

I think Gretchen Whitmer unfortunately has, I guess, tied to the economy maybe a little bit more than any one governor or politician has control over.

Inflation is really making people angry.

Until very recently, the high gas prices we're making people angry.

Obviously the incumbent always struggles a little bit when their person is in the president's office as well, someone from their party.

So Whitmer has that to contend with, but where there's also this whole social issues dynamic that's brewing.

Dixon has made a big deal out of things like CRT, and what we're teaching our children.

She's taught, talked a lot about what she, what she wants for her children, and Gretchen Whitmer meanwhile, has made a big deal about abortion, which is something that could crop up on the ballot, but also is just something that has come really under scrutiny since the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade, and that Dobbs decision.

I think that everyone in every state is watching that issue pretty closely, and wants to know what their elected officials are gonna do about it.

Whitmer and Dixon have very different stances on that issue.

Whitmer's been fighting in court to keep abortion access in place, and Dixon has said she opposes it.

I believe, unless it's to save the life of the mother, even in cases of, of rape and incest.

- Who knows, she might moderate on that.

I've seen a number of candidates, conservative candidates in particular, across the country, beginning to moderate just a little bit.

And that may have something to do with what we saw in Kansas and how voters turned out in a very red state, in favor of having abortion rights on the ballot.

What is that message?

How could that shift?

Should the board of state canvassers approve the ballot initiative for a constitutional amendment in Michigan guaranteeing abortion rights?

How does that dynamic, if that should happen... and I think we're expecting this later this month, how could that shift the tide in this election?

Not just in the gubernatorial race, but across the board.

- Yeah, it absolutely could.

So really it shifts turnout.

So if you're Tudor Dixon, you're hoping that people show up at the polls because they're mad about the economy, they want lower gas prices, and they think you can do a better job.

If you're Gretchen Whitmer, you want people to show up at the polls 'cause they're fired up over that abortion petition.

So that abortion petition initiative collected a ton of signatures.

I think 750,000 they turned in.

The board of state canvassers has to validate that they have enough valid signatures, which of course has been a problem this cycle as we mentioned earlier with the gubernatorial candidates.

But if that petition is on the ballot, and Planned Parenthood of Michigan and other abortion rights groups are out there getting everyone to the polls, that has a huge effect for people like Gretchen Whitmer who support abortion rights.

While you're at the polls, to vote on that abortion initiative, you're going to pick the pro abortion rights candidates as well.

So I think that Democrats certainly would benefit if that does make the ballot.

And I think that a lot of people are really motivated by that right now.

It's always kind of a question of what's motivating people a month and a half or two months from now (chuckles) as absentees go out and then as people head to the polls in person.

So sometimes I do feel like we're sort of, trying to handicap based on our current information, but the whole economic picture could change.

The whole abortion picture could change certainly a month or two from now.

- And every state is unique.

We've seen this already in Georgia.

Trump endorsed candidates did not fare well.

In Arizona, they overwhelmingly did very well.

So I don't think that we can use Kansas necessarily, as the guide, the north star for the entire country.

However, the number of signatures on that petition, which I believe was a record in the state, tells us what?

- Yeah.

There is huge interest.

And frankly, I forget what the exact numbers are, but the number that they collected just after that Supreme Court decision was amazing in itself.

I think that people are really, really motivated by this.

And I think frankly, that people who maybe weren't that plugged in on this issue, or sort of passingly cared about it, but didn't think it would ever affect them, are looking for something tangible that they can do.

And that really could mean coming out to the polls.

- We only have a few minutes left before we bring Stella Yu in from Bridge Michigan.

Money.

How much does money matter now?

We know that Governor Whitmer has a giant war chest, but with social media and other platforms, it's almost as though we have to shift our thinking.

Does the money matter?

You tell me.

What are, what are you seeing in these races?

- Yeah.

I think the money does matter.

However, I think that Gretchen Whitmer might have so much that I'm not sure you can effectively deploy it in one race.

I'm pretty sure Gretchen Whitmer could run an ad on every station in the state from now until election day if she wanted to.

That's kind of the level of resources we're talking about, just millions and millions raised from a lot of out-of-state donors too.

So she's got a lot of people plugged in and invested literally in her race who aren't even from Michigan, who is just tapping into some outside money sources for sure.

I would not rule out the possibility that Tudor Dixon gets a lot of help from outta state too.

I think that nationally, Republicans are probably looking at Michigan, and saying what a gift it would be if we could knock off Gretchen Whitmer.

I think that's probably a school of thought out there.

And I think that Dixon is probably a strong candidate that a lot of those groups are looking at.

And of course she has the backing of the DeVos family.

I'm sure that those are deep pockets that she can rely on.

So I don't think that... money is not an object necessarily.

I don't think social media replaces real media, real advice.

The problem with social media is that people get stuck in their echo chambers.

If you're only reaching Republicans who follow you to tell you (laughs) to tell them to vote for you, then you're not as effective as if you're reaching a broader audience, and some independents, and some swayable Democrats.

So I do think that there's something to be said for traditional media bias, but also just capturing the public's attention.

You're talking points, what issues you key in on, what community groups and stakeholders you're engaging with, are all gonna be huge going into November.

- All right.

Just about a minute left here.

The inside baseball.

What are you watching?

What do you recommend we all watch, and where do we glean the information to track it?

- Yeah.

I think what we've gotta watch honestly, is the thing I'm always looking at is talking to your friends and neighbors, and see where people are keying in.

I've mentioned abortion in the economy.

That might not be what people care about.

People in your social circle are talking about school district issues or something they want to change at the state house or fixing the roads for instance.

So I really think that where the public goes is where the race goes.

And that's what I always look at.

- Emily Lawler, Detroit Free Press, always a pleasure having you on the program.

Thanks so much.

- Hey, thanks for having me.

- All right.

We're gonna take a quick break.

And when we come back, Stella Yu, she's the State Political Reporter, with Bridge Michigan will join us.

We'll see ya in about a minute.

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(bright upbeat music) - Welcome back to "West Michigan Week" as promised, Stella Yu is now joining us.

She's the political reporter with Bridge Michigan.

We're talking politics here.

You've been following the gubernatorial race as well.

And in particular, how female candidates factor in at the top of a ticket.

Now this is gonna be interesting because now you have Governor Whitmer, and now Tudor Dixon as the GOP candidate.

How does this all play out in your mind?

- Yeah, for sure.

It's definitely a historic moment when Tudor Dixon won the GOP primary, and now we have, for the first time in Michigan State history, we have two female, major party nominees at the top of the ticket come this November.

And so it's historic, and also it's... in a national context, Michigan is now one of six states where we're gonna see two women heading to the November general election against each other.

And so, as a national trend, voters have been more and more comfortable with seeing more and more women candidates on their ticket.

But, according to some of the experts and political insiders that we've talked to, there's the downside of that, because once you have female candidates, all of a sudden, they are subjected, more scrutiny compared to their male counterparts.

Already, we're seeing people commenting on their looks.

We're seeing people comparing their looks even.

Meshawn Maddock, for example, the Michigan GOP co-chair, she has said at a public event, that Tudor Dixon is a quote, "younger, smarter, and hotter version of Gretchen Whitmer."

And so we're definitely going to see more of that in the next three months as people turn their focus to these two candidates.

But at the same time, strategists I've talked to, say that Tudor Dixon's gender gives her an advantage over her previous male opponents, because she has the ability to take on Whitmer on abortion, and Whitmer could no longer use this argument that, "Hey, my male opponent from the GOP doesn't understand a woman's body."

And so now you have two very, I guess, similar, but quite different candidates.

Tudor Dixon and Gretchen Whitmer, both of them are portraying themselves as working moms.

You see them on polar opposites, on abortion, on economy, on education, yet they're both appealing to their women voters, especially on the conservative side, conservative women, young women are a target group that the GOP has been trying to tap in.

And so on that front, Tudor Dixon is doing them a favor.

And so it's a very interesting dynamic going forward.

- You were focused also, on the big race here in West Michigan, and that was incumbent US Representative Peter Meijer, who voted to impeach then President Donald Trump along with 10 other Republicans, and then newcomer the challenger, John Gibbs.

John Gibbs wins.

What, what happened in this race?

You could look at Ottawa County and Kent County, and you could draw different conclusions on how people voted, but big picture, what was your take on this?

- So, yeah, it was certainly interesting.

From a money perspective, I am surprised honestly, because my experience has been, the candidate with the most money always wins.

And so when you look at the campaign finance records, Peter Meijer took in $2.75 million, and Gibbs raised, in the same period, less than $400,000.

And so it's a very significant gap, but still, Gibbs won by a narrow margin, but still, you've got 52% of the votes going to Gibbs, and then 48% going to Peter Meijer.

And so, yeah.

The consultants I've talked to, they're saying that it wasn't necessarily the Trump endorsement that helped Gibbs win this race.

It certainly helped to some extent, but also you're seeing Peter Meijer already drawing heat after he voted to impeach Trump.

That definitely didn't go well with the Trump based supporters, but also at the same time, when you see Peter Meijer voting in favor of same sex marriage, in favor of gun control right before the primary, that didn't really sit well with the conservative voters.

That kind of feeds into this impression that Trump and his supporters have been trying to portray Peter Meijer as, which is a Wino.

And that's when you have conservative voters... they may be turned away and thinking, "Okay, I think Meijer is a Wino.

I'm going to go with John Gibbs."

And so I think that's how, at least according to my sources, that's how John Gibbs was able to, pull this huge upset in West Michigan.

- Meijer has a pretty good track record though, with actually moving policy forward.

That apparently didn't play with anybody.

- Well that, I guess certainly played a part.

I guess that's interesting because I think how well the policies actually play out, or how popular the policies would be among voters, that would really be decided in the November general election, when you see a Democrat who might fare better in a purple district, the third congressional district, whereas John Gibbs is going to have this uphill climb against Hillary Scholten who has this fundraising advantage ahead of him.

I think how popular these policies that Meijer has advanced in congress by working with other Republicans, more moderate Republicans, or working with, or working across the aisle with Democrats, how well that's going to play out, and how popular that is among the voters, I guess that would, we would really see that in the November general election.

- So, it seems to me, we're seeing more of the culture wars playing out in politics than policy.

- Oh yeah, for sure.

Yes.

Tudor Dixon herself has said that "I'm going to fight this culture war."

And in my experience, covering not just statewide races, but also local races.

There have been more and more candidates saying culture wars are all that matters.

We are going to fight for parental rights.

We are going to stand up against government overreach.

These are some of the things that have been firing people up since the pandemic started, or even before then.

And so yes, we can definitely see some of those issues, could even drive voter turnout.

- In Ottawa County, there's a group, Ottawa Impact.

A number of county commissioners were a part of this ballot.

How much did culture play into... that group really faring well?

I think all but, all but one.

There was an incumbent who survived.

Everybody knew in Ottawa County.

- Yeah, for sure.

I guess, if you ask how much culture war played into it, I would say almost certain, 99% of the platform that Ottawa impact candidates are running on are culture issues.

They're running on parental rights.

They're running on anti-mask mandates, anti-vaccine mandates, they're running against the county's efforts back in 2019, when Ottawa Impact wasn't even formed.

And they're running against the diversity, equity and inclusion office that the county established in 2019, saying that it was a waste of taxpayer dollars.

They linked it to critical race theory, saying that this is teaching our kids to hate their race, to hate themselves.

And you're also seeing them running against the county's health department for linking to some of these other services, other platforms that are promoting birth control resources, abortion clinic locators, things like that.

And so I guess it really took off in March, 2021.

Or even August, 2021.

It was formed in March, 2021.

And then in August, there was this massive turnout at a county commissioner's meeting.

There were hundreds of parents who were, who were there protesting, holding up signs against mask mandates, and even made national news with one of the residents saying, "There's hell coming.

I'm not doing this to threaten anybody, but there is hell coming."

And ever since that meeting, and that was a protest against a school mask mandate that was put in place.

And so ever since that meeting, the commissioners, who are mostly moderate Republicans, running on tax rates, economy, pro business stances, almost every one of them told me that they are pro-life, they're anti-abortion.

But that was really kind of the peak of this movement against the incumbent Republicans in Ottawa county.

So yeah, most of these moderate Republicans started getting death threats.

That isn't necessarily linked to Ottawa Impact.

They may have just been angry residents hoping to make a difference.

But yeah, one of them told me that he had so, he had such extreme death threats that he referred one of them to the sheriffs department for investigation.

The email came from a resident who is anti-vaccine mandate, which the county never put in place.

And that email threatened to inject that county commissioner's wife with a serum and watch her die.

And so it was, it was pretty extreme.

And so, yeah.

So fast forward to the primary.

The Ottawa Impact candidates have been raising money.

They have been successful at doing that.

So the fundraising gap is about tens of thousands of dollars between the moderate incumbents, and conservative challengers like Ottawa Impact candidates.

And so they also received a lot of money from Ottawa Impact PAC, which is a political action committee that has been raising money to benefit these nine challengers.

And so, yeah.

And they were successful, because eight of the nine challengers successfully beat their incumbent Republicans, and they, many of them are going to be seated, come January.

So... - Stella Yu, Political Reporter, Bridge, Michigan.

Thank you so much for joining us.

- Thanks for having me.

- And thank you for joining us.

We'll see you again soon.

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